Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming by various accounts came bouncing out of Churchill Downs in good order. His Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher felt good about his preparation. Always Dreaming is the horse the racing industry will be rooting for. Many experts are calling this the most wide-open Kentucky Derby in years.
When I hear that, I get cynical. Wide open was in when Mine That Bird destroyed the field at odds. The Kentucky Derby attracts the most novice and casual bettors of any race in our sport. With that in mind, there are all kinds of free Derby seminars next week. I love making future bets, not only in horse racing but also other sports. Our goal is to bet a little to win a lot. When the folks at Churchill Downs dreamed up the Kentucky Derby points system, I was skeptical at first.
Don't miss the big stories. Like us on Facebook. Irish War Cry due for good race, pick to win Belmont. June 8, - pm June 8, - pm. This weekend is filled with festival-style horse racing. June 1, - pm June 1, - pm. Now I have my task. The base of my research was academic journals. Curiously enough, there are more than a few scholars who have been enthralled enough by the sport and the math involved to have published there own works on the subject.
Bolton and Randall G. Chapman, I found the information that would carry me through this project. Bolton and Chapman set out to find which variables would be most important to consider when evaluating the horses in a race, and predicting the outcome. There research suggested that "average amount of money earned per race in the current year" and "average speed rating over the last four races" were the two most important factors.
The shocker to me was that jockeys, post position, and weight were deemed inconsequential for the most part. The best jockeys were often put on the best horses, and their correlation nullified much of their value. Armed with this new information, it was time to make an equation of my own. I have the variables deemed most important by Bolton and Chapman, and needed to weigh them. In the case of betting on a Maiden race, where none of the competing horses has ever won a race in its life, I decided to change the "lifetime win percentage" to "lifetime in the money percentage", or how many times the horse has finished in the top three in the number of times the horse has competed.
Please note: All of the statistics that I use in this formula can be found in he Daily Racing Form, and you can use this the next time you go to the track. Of my three important variables, "money earned per race in the current year", and "average speed rating over the last four races" were the most important, while "lifetime win percentage" was significant.
Each horse is then rated by these past performances in comparison to the other horses in the race. If it were a four horse race, the top horse would earn 4 points, a five horse race, 5 points, etc. Ok, are we all still together on this one? It's ok to go back and go over that again. It took me a few tries myself.
I'd hate for someone to fall astray, get a bad ranking system, and then come back and yell at me because they lost a lot of money. We're good? Moving on then. Let us suggest that the equations were performed for all the horses in an upcoming five horse race. Now, remember how we weighted the values from before? I wasn't just screwing around with nonsense. Multiply their points in each category by the values they were given earlier.
Let us look at how they stack up now. This is your own independent way to calculate the horses on your own. The best part is that now we can take it one step further. With the information you have in that last table, you can calculate what percentage of the total points each horse has, and have a rough estimate of what percentage each horse has of winning the race.
In the case of horse 1, it has 26 of a possible points, Should we have it in a table? I say yes. Important Note : Morning line odds can also be put into percentages like this. The equation is even easy to remember. Add 1, and then divide by that number. In order to get the percentage back to , divide by the sum of the morning line odds percentages.
Multiply all the morning line odds percentages by. Finally, when betting exotically, such as exactas, trifectas and superfectas, take into account each horse's "lifetime in the money percentage". A horse may not win many races, but often finish in the top 3. That horse, even if it ranks lowly on your list of winners, may need to be put in your exotic bet, and forgetting those horses could cost you.
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Servis was charged with administering performance-enhancing drugs to several horses, including Maximum Security, who crossed the finish line first at the Kentucky Derby before being disqualified for interference. It came about because of a federal investigation. Where was racing when this was going on?
What does that tell you about the racing association? Their methods of testing were flawed. The horse died of a heart attack in January. Sweeney Jr. Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey reviewjournal. Follow tdewey33 on Twitter. Unsubscribe at any time.
Some products and merchandise listed on this site may contain affiliate links in which the publisher of this site may receive a commission or portion of the sale. Don't miss the big stories. Like us on Facebook. Patrick Cantlay is now the favorite at Perhaps more improbable than Tom Brady leaving New England after 20 years and leading Tampa Bay to a Super Bowl title in his first season there was the manner in which the Buccaneers beat the Chiefs.
Las Vegas books reported a win their 29th Super Bowl in the 31 years since the Nevada Gaming Control Board started tracking the game in Refresh constantly for minute-to-minute updates on all of the Super Bowl action — player props, live line movement, halftime bets and more. The race is considered the world's richest horse race which attracted some of the world's best male and female jockeys. Servis is among more than two dozen officials charged in what authorities describe as a widespread international scheme to drug horses to race faster.
Benter analyzed all the available sources which were quite limited at the time and learned everything he could about the history of horse racing, particularly the Hong Kong scene, which is one of the most lucrative horse betting markets in the world. However, there was a problem — Benter had little to no knowledge of statistics, which was mandatory to pull this off successfully.
Thus, he started learning advanced statistics and code software on an early version of the PC, which had a green-and-black screen. Once he had a thorough understanding of advanced statistical models, he teamed up with Tony Woods, a former insurance actuary who was also an ill-reputed gambler in Vegas. The two partners moved to Hong Kong, where they set up a shop in a shabby apartment.
They equipped it with computers, collected as much information about horse racing as possible, and fed the data to the statistical models developed by Benter. That was the moment Benter realized that he could indeed handicap horse races. Shortly after they lost everything, Benter left Hong Kong and returned to counting cards. He played blackjack in Atlantic City for over two years, where he managed to gather a few hundred thousand dollars.
Now that he had enough capital to beat the odds by himself, he decided to leave for Hong Kong and try again. On top of that, private clubs were running the horse racing tracks. That was until he discovered that he omitted a crucial data point that changed his life — the publicly available horse racing odds. That was when he realized that his prediction model was actually more effective at improving the public racetrack odds than generating them from scratch.
Once Bill Benter successfully cracked the horse-racing code, the money started adding up. He then decided that it was time to take things slower, so he gambled less and joined the Rotary Club. In late , he felt like it was time to go back to the U.
The odds of winning the Triple Trio were 1 in 10 million. It was so popular that nearly one-seventh of the entire Hong Kong population wagered at least one bet. He took a photo with the betting slip and deposited it in a safe box. He never actually cashed it out, so all the money was deposited to charity.
His story was huge in the Hong Kong news, and he eventually sent a letter saying that he has no intention of claiming the prize. To this day, Benter continues betting on horse racing via the Internet, and he said that most people have no idea how he made his money.
Bill Benter is a true legend of the betting world.
The NYRA announced they will just bring the entire card back on Monday, so we have some racing action to kick off the week. I went looking for warmer weather and settled on betting action from Santa Anita and Gulfstream Park for this afternoon. My Best Plays Report for Sunday includes my nine strongest plays from the two tracks. The horse betting company based in the U. Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. Here at this meet the trainer is 2 for 10 with debut runners.
She has been working sharply in the mornings at Payson and looks ready to go at first asking. Decent looking works including a couple of recent gate drills should have her ready for her debut here. The fourth-place finisher Star Kissed was a next out grad and three others came back to run in the money next out. Now she tries grass. Translate also faces winners for the first time. She came off nearly a three month break for her local debut after shipping in from New York.
Five have exited that race to run back with no next out winners, the best a second and a third. Two back at Belmont Park she was run down late to miss by a head in a solid race that produced a pair of next out winners while the winner High Opinion came back to run second in the Winter Memories. CO Gambling problem? Call Indiana Self-Restriction Program. NJ Bet with your head, not over it! Gambling Problem? Call Gambler.
Contact the Nevada Council on Problem Gambling or call PA If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, help is available, call Gambler. Find where to bet in your state! With our intuitive graphs, you can easily compare the figures of the horses running today on all the major racing tracks. Daily Horse Picks has everything you need to win at the races. We hope that you will enjoy using our tools! Although grappling with significant challenges from new pursuers, Midnight Bourbon is now set to make Group Caddo River finished second to bag 10 Kentucky derby points, living up to his hype as a legitimate trial contender for the Triple Crown.
The second stretch had Caddo River opening a clear lead, but being caught late Read More. Local favorites this year include Tarantino and Spielberg among other contenders. The Kentucky Derby is scheduled to take place this year amid growing concerns about the spread of Covid according to a recent statement released by the event organizers. You can try the picks risk-free today! Recent articles from our partners BettingNews.
College Basketball Picks: Sunday, February 7th. College Basketball Picks: Saturday, February 6. Charles Town. Delta Downs. Gulfstream Park. Parx Racing. Penn National. Tampa Bay Downs. Turf Paradise. Race 3 1st 6. Race 7 1st 1. Race 2 1st 6. Race 5 1st 7. Race 2 1st 5. Race 8 1st 7.
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