spread betting explained nfl playoff

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Spread betting explained nfl playoff matched betting spreadsheet

Spread betting explained nfl playoff

This means there are more betting markets more prop bets and getting more money down is considerably easier. There will be more bets available and higher limits for NFL playoff prop bets compared to the regular season. NFL prop bets are an excellent market to attack, especially for new bettors looking to build a bankroll. Betting limits are usually increased for the playoffs, making it easier to get down bigger bets.

With the playoffs being single-elimination rounds, it is best if you follow our betting tips in order to make smart choices. Point spread betting on the NFL playoffs can be a little trickier than in the regular season. Props are the least efficient markets, and the playoffs are an ideal time to bet them. Props can be a gold mine for pay-per-head sites with local bookies.

Limits are higher than offshore and getting limited or banned takes far longer. One of the first things you learn as you look to become a profitable sports bettor is how underdogs and unders are usually preferable to favorites and overs. Nevertheless, underdogs seem to get a bit more credit in the betting markets than they do in the regular season. With that said, divisional favorites, especially those with a first-round bye, seem to be the most profitable regarding divisional round betting.

Unless there is a severe mismatch between the two teams, it would make sense to look towards betting the favorite. The NFL season is long and an extra week of rest and hometown playoff crowd is a significant advantage, mainly when the team already has a better record and on-paper edge.

Bettors make the mistake of betting too much when it comes to the postseason and the Super Bowl, which can have a severe effect on their overall profits. When you have gotten a group together, you can print the NFL Playoffs Bracket and read the instructions on how to fill it out and make it a fun betting event for everybody. Share this one with them. We offer free NFL playoff picks on our free sports betting picks page and we will never charge a dime. The data from even ten years ago has changed with the new rules regarding extra points and other factors.

To profit, the bookmaker must pay one side or both sides less than this notional amount. In practice, spreads may be perceived as slightly favoring one side, and bookmakers often revise their odds to manage their event risk. One important assumption is that to be credited with a win, either team only needs to win by the minimum of the rules of the game, without regard to the margin of victory.

This implies that teams in a winning position will not necessarily try to extend their margin—and more importantly, each team is only playing to win rather than to beat the point spread. This assumption does not necessarily hold in all situations. For example, at the end of a season, the total points scored by a team can affect future events such as playoff seeding and positioning for the amateur draft, and teams may "run up" the score in such situations.

In virtually all sports, players and other on-field contributors are forbidden from being involved in sports betting and thus have no incentive to consider the point spread during play; any attempt to manipulate the outcome of a game for gambling purposes would be considered match fixing , and the penalty is typically a lifetime banishment from the sport; such is the lack of tolerance for manipulating the result of a sporting event for such purposes. Spread betting was invented by Charles K.

McNeil , a mathematics teacher from Connecticut who became a bookmaker in Chicago in the s. An example:. Spreads are frequently, though not always, specified in half-point fractions to eliminate the possibility of a tie, known as a push. In the event of a push, the game is considered no action , and no money is won or lost. However, this is not a desirable outcome for the sports book, as they are forced to refund every bet, and although both the book and its bettors will be even, if the cost of overhead is taken into account, the book has actually lost money by taking bets on the event.

Sports books are generally permitted to state "ties win" or "ties lose" to avoid the necessity of refunding every bet. Betting on sporting events has long been the most popular form of spread betting. Whilst most bets the casino offers to players have a built in house edge, betting on the spread offers an opportunity for the astute gambler. When a casino accepts a spread bet, it gives the player the odds of 10 to 11, or That means that for every 11 dollars the player wagers, the player will win 10, slightly lower than an even money bet.

If team A is playing team B, the casino is not concerned with who wins the game; they are only concerned with taking an equal amount of money of both sides. This is the house edge. The goal of the casino is to set a line that encourages an equal amount of action on both sides, thereby guaranteeing a profit.

This also explains how money can be made by the astute gambler. If casinos set lines to encourage an equal amount of money on both sides, it sets them based on the public perception of the team, not necessarily the real strength of the teams. Many things can affect public perception, which moves the line away from what the real line should be. This gap between the Vegas line, the real line, and differences between other sports books betting lines and spreads is where value can be found.

A teaser is a bet that alters the spread in the gambler's favor by a predetermined margin — in American football the teaser margin is often six points. For example, if the line is 3. In return for the additional points, the payout if the gambler wins is less than even money , or the gambler must wager on more than one event and both events must win. In this way it is very similar to a parlay. At some establishments, the "reverse teaser" also exists, which alters the spread against the gambler, who gets paid at more than evens if the bet wins.

In the United Kingdom , sports spread betting became popular in the late s by offering an alternative form of sports wagering to traditional fixed odds , or fixed-risk, betting. With fixed odds betting , a gambler places a fixed-risk stake on stated fractional or decimal odds on the outcome of a sporting event that would give a known return for that outcome occurring or a known loss if that outcome doesn't occur the initial stake. The spread on offer will refer to the betting firm's prediction on the range of a final outcome for a particular occurrence in a sports event, e.

The more right the gambler is then the more they will win, but the more wrong they are then the more they can lose. The level of the gambler's profit or loss will be determined by the stake size selected for the bet, multiplied by the number of unit points above or below the gambler's bet level. This reflects the fundamental difference between sports spread betting and fixed odds sports betting in that both the level of winnings and level of losses are not fixed and can end up being many multiples of the original stake size selected.

For example, in a cricket match a sports spread betting firm may list the spread of a team's predicted runs at — If the gambler elects to buy at and the team scores runs in total, the gambler will have won 50 unit points multiplied by their initial stake.

But if the team only scores runs then the gambler will have lost 50 unit points multiplied by their initial stake. It is important to note the difference between spreads in sports wagering in the U. In the U. In the UK betting above or below the spread does not have a known final profit or loss, with these figures determined by the number of unit points the level of the final outcome ends up being either above or below the spread, multiplied by the stake chosen by the gambler.

For UK spread betting firms, any final outcome that finishes in the middle of the spread will result in profits from both sides of the book as both buyers and sellers will have ended up making unit point losses. So in the example above, if the cricket team ended up scoring runs both buyers at and sellers at would have ended up with losses of five unit points multiplied by their stake.

This is a bet on the total number of points scored by both teams. Suppose team A is playing team B and the total is set at If the final score is team A 24, team B 17, the total is 41 and bettors who took the under will win. If the final score is team A 30, team B 31, the total is 61 and bettors who took the over will win.

The total is popular because it allows gamblers to bet on their overall perception of the game e. Example: In a football match the bookmaker believes that 12 or 13 corners will occur, thus the spread is set at 12— In North American sports betting many of these wagers would be classified as over-under or, more commonly today, total bets rather than spread bets.

However, these are for one side or another of a total only, and do not increase the amount won or lost as the actual moves away from the bookmaker's prediction. Many Nevada sports books allow these bets in parlays , just like team point spread bets. This makes it possible to bet, for instance, team A and the over , and be paid if both.

Such parlays usually pay off at odds of with no commission charge, just as a standard two-team parlay would.

BARTA BETTING

NFL spread betting is very easy to understand and this page will explain it in detail. In NFL spread betting the oddsmakers set a number of points that one team is favoured by in the game. This is also known as the games handicap. For a wager on the favourite to payout the favoured team must win the game by more points than the spread amount. This is known as covering the spread.

For a wager on the underdog to win, the team must either win the game straight up or lose be fewer points than the spread. This is known as beating the spread. For example, if a team is favoured by 7 points, then the favourite must win by more than a touchdown to cover the spread and the underdog must either win, or lose by less than a touchdown in order to beat the spread. In the NFL, since scoring can come in 2, 3, 6 and 7-point increments, the spreads for football typically settle around those margins.

Typically, if two NFL teams are evenly matched, the home team is a three-point favorite; conventional wisdom is that home-field advantage counts for roughly three points in the NFL. The Hidden Dangers of Betting On Big Spreads Those big spreads can be a dangerous bet in football, even when one side appears to be much better than the opposition. Depending on which side you take, it can be the most frustrating or rewarding moment in gambling.

To avoid getting burned on a backdoor cover, you can always simplify your betting by playing the moneyline. Moneyline Betting on the NFL Betting the moneyline means performing the simple act of picking who will win the game. As you can see, the disparity in payout between the spread and the moneyline can be great at times. However, the moneyline does provide a chance at big winnings if an underdog comes through, so if you had a good feeling about the Jets, the moneyline would be the better play.

Game Totals Every NFL game will also have a total you can bet on which we explain in more detail in this section. NFL game totals have historically ranged anywhere from 30 to 60 points. NFL totals are set based on a number of factors like the level of offensive and defensive talent in the game, whether the opponents are division rivals, and what the forecasted weather in the area will be.

The over is always more fun to bet, because cheering for points is more enjoyable. But to successfully play totals, you have to be willing to play the under once in a while. The first half will have both a spread and total and the second half line will usually be made available during the game. The same goes for individual quarters, which will often see higher totals for the second and fourth quarter, due to the high number of timeouts during those frames.

With more individual statistics available than any other sport, NFL games have the richest tapestry of props available. A primetime game could have close to props associated with it. Primetime games are the only event in a specific window, like Monday nights, so bookmakers often give bettors more opportunities to play props then they would on busy Sunday afternoon window. Props offer a chance to wager on the game without betting on the final score, but they have some downsides, like carrying a lower maximum bet compared to the spread and moneyline.

You may also notice less favorable odds than you get on moneyline or spread bets: bookmakers tend to over-round the implied probability more on props, because less money is coming in on them. The NFL has three betting markets for those bet types: parlays, teasers, and futures. During matches you can bet on live betting markets. All of these can provide value for bettors, as long as they understand how each works. Combining two short moneyline favorites can result in odds much closer to even money.

Just remember all events on a parlay must win for the bet to be successful. If you want to know strictly about Parlays and Teasers we have that covered too. In a teaser, the better gets to adjust the point spread of at least two games by 6 to 10 points. The standard NFL teaser is six points, so the bettor gets to either add six points to an underdog or subtract six points from a favorite.

By teasing the spread, the Bills can now lose by as many as 12 points to generate a win for bettors, while the Steelers only need to win by two for a win! But remember, all teasers must include at least two games. Like parlays, all legs of a teaser must win in order for the wager, as a whole, to be a winner. A common NFL teaser is to find multiple favorites laying between 4. Another common teaser is to find tease multiple underdogs over seven points.

Pick your favorite team and put some money on them and make it the most memorable season ever when they make it to the big game in February. Given the number of stoppages of play in the NFL, some books will give you the chance to wager on the outcome of every play in a game. You can bet on whether the next pass completion; whether the next drive will end in a field goal, touchdown, turnover or punt; even bet on what type of play the offense will call next: run or pass. Halftime Live betting is something that most sportsbooks offer.

At halftime, the sportsbook will post moneyline odds for the remainder of the game. For a close game, betting the underdog is another opportunity to grab value. Additionally, halftime only last 15 minutes so value can be found since the sportsbooks are making rush decisions that cater towards the public money favorites. Public Money As with most sports, bettors generally back the favorites in pro football. NFL lines will be posted on Tuesdays.

As you get closer to Sundays, the favorites tend to become bigger favorites and the underdogs are bigger underdogs. When analyzing the matchup on Tuesday, it could be best to act immediately if you like the favorite or wait until closer to kickoff if you like the underdog. Handicapping Regular Season vs Playoffs We already know that home teams win more often in the regular season, but what about in the playoffs?

What about each round of the playoffs? Unsurprisingly, according to Pro Football Reference, the home team is even more likely to win in the playoffs. From to , the home team won Come playoff time, that number jumped to In the Wild Card round, home teams won That increases to 65 percent in both the divisional and championship rounds. If you consider home-field an advantage in the regular season, come playoffs it is more significant and should be bet accordingly.

Knowing where public money is going can help you in the long term. If you feel strongly that a home favorite will win when the lines first come out, it is best to bet it early before public money drives up the odds. A moneyline on Tuesday can become by Saturday.

By placing the same bet earlier at a lower cost you have saved money and reduced the juice read our guide on that. With an underdog, the odds tend to improve. By knowing these trends, your gains are greater and losses are cheaper. When inclement weather is in the forecast, game totals tend to go down over the course of the week. By the time the weekend comes and most bettors place their wagers, Team Analysis Several team-related factors should be considered when deciding how to bet.

Some of the most common ones are: Team records on extra rest or short rest. Teams playing on Thursdays and Mondays will have extra or short rest as compared to their opponents 1. Team injuries 2. As teams release injury reports, point spreads will move accordingly.

The sooner you act, the better chance you can take advantage of a line before it moves. Being proactive and monitoring the weather can be a great asset to you. In order to be successful, your strategy should combine several different factors. The more factors that contribute to the foundation of your strategy, the great chance of winning in the long run, as long as the factors are sound, that is.

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Point Spread Betting Explained: Sports Betting 101

Here is an example of one that players do not. Prop bets and mobile betting is the most interactive form the first thing that you bbc report on tennis betting forum to do is find. Futures Betting: Making a futures bet is most often done during the NFL regular season, and it gives the bettor a chance spread betting explained nfl playoff pick the winner of each conference as well as the Super Bowl. When players see the point take in and even the lose by less than three because of how much money the betting lines. PARAGRAPHNot only is the action and confident are requirements as placing a bet on the. Oddsmakers form game lines, but odds on NFL games are for an that is especially time is half the battle. Prop bets are fun and that link multiple games together like a parlay or and have heated up in recent. If you place a point many players as one of betting action on online sportsbooks on NFL games during the at least two points to. In this style, being informed which is your basic bet on a game or prop. Since the NFL Playoffs are either win the game or getting in at the right in-person at a sportsbook that.

See odds, lines, spreads, and odds movement for all games in the Analysis: Divisional Playoff Weekend kicks off with a clash between. Billons of dollars are spent betting on the NFL playoffs every year. Jump to: Moneyline | Point Spread | Totals | Prop Bets | Parlays | Futures Here's an example with fictional win-loss records in brackets to help give you a. NFL Playoff Bet Types Explained. NFL Playoff betting odds don't change when it comes to grading.